* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * LAURA AL122008 09/30/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 54 55 55 55 58 65 75 79 84 88 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 54 55 55 55 58 65 75 79 84 88 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 53 53 53 51 50 50 54 60 65 67 SHEAR (KTS) 27 20 11 11 7 18 35 19 25 24 18 35 36 SHEAR DIR 328 316 296 273 266 285 294 285 280 243 241 270 244 SST (C) 25.0 24.3 23.4 21.9 20.3 16.2 12.4 13.3 10.3 10.7 13.0 14.1 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 104 99 94 87 81 72 68 69 67 69 71 71 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 83 80 76 72 68 66 66 65 67 68 68 67 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.7 -57.6 -56.9 -56.4 -56.9 -56.6 -57.5 -58.1 -58.9 -58.7 -58.2 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 57 55 56 58 60 65 67 62 60 59 58 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 22 22 21 19 17 16 20 27 25 29 36 850 MB ENV VOR 111 104 94 84 76 76 72 107 128 191 241 260 263 200 MB DIV 10 42 26 25 4 12 20 65 41 29 15 14 57 LAND (KM) 978 898 819 723 635 544 582 795 1140 1433 867 369 22 LAT (DEG N) 38.6 39.4 40.2 41.3 42.4 45.0 48.1 51.1 53.7 55.0 54.9 55.0 55.1 LONG(DEG W) 48.4 48.4 48.3 48.1 47.8 46.5 45.0 42.6 38.6 32.1 23.3 15.4 8.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 11 12 15 16 17 18 22 24 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -20. -20. -21. -22. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 15. 16. 18. 20. 19. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 20. 24. 30. 36. 39. 41. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -4. 1. -1. 3. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 9. 16. 26. 30. 35. 40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 8. 15. 25. 29. 34. 38. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122008 LAURA 09/30/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122008 LAURA 09/30/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY