* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 09/30/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 53 63 72 82 89 96 99 97 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 53 63 72 82 89 96 99 97 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 32 36 40 45 50 SHEAR (KTS) 17 13 8 8 9 3 3 10 7 3 3 8 6 SHEAR DIR 77 80 83 59 75 147 287 276 266 182 50 86 97 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 147 147 149 149 151 149 147 144 141 140 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.3 -53.1 -52.1 -52.7 -51.5 -52.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 9 8 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 81 79 76 73 74 70 72 67 68 66 62 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 11 12 14 17 20 25 30 32 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 14 3 -1 0 -2 -8 4 19 38 46 71 73 79 200 MB DIV 120 93 96 102 101 94 64 91 94 80 69 45 0 LAND (KM) 548 522 510 485 462 448 420 379 376 379 400 425 434 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.6 12.0 13.0 14.1 15.0 15.9 16.6 17.1 17.1 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.4 97.2 98.2 99.2 101.3 103.1 104.5 105.9 107.1 107.9 108.2 108.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 11 11 11 9 8 7 6 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 23. 29. 35. 36. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 22. 33. 43. 54. 62. 69. 71. 69. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 17. 28. 38. 47. 57. 64. 71. 74. 72. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 09/30/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 09/30/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY