* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * LAURA AL122008 09/30/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 52 52 52 54 60 67 73 74 71 68 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 52 52 52 54 60 67 73 74 71 68 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 51 51 50 49 48 49 51 54 60 64 66 SHEAR (KTS) 22 14 12 8 11 21 18 21 29 35 45 41 32 SHEAR DIR 315 300 283 264 267 294 284 280 274 275 273 268 261 SST (C) 24.0 22.5 20.8 18.8 16.7 11.9 12.8 11.0 10.1 10.9 12.7 13.8 14.3 POT. INT. (KT) 98 89 82 77 72 68 68 67 67 68 69 70 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 83 77 73 70 68 65 66 65 65 66 67 67 68 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.5 -56.9 -56.7 -56.8 -56.7 -57.1 -57.9 -58.4 -60.5 -60.8 -59.2 -59.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 55 58 59 60 57 59 55 49 54 59 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 22 21 20 19 17 17 18 22 23 18 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 85 79 81 72 76 67 105 114 122 170 157 181 228 200 MB DIV 31 35 18 16 2 35 30 44 -16 14 -13 -3 13 LAND (KM) 838 740 647 557 491 469 614 919 1260 1347 915 479 112 LAT (DEG N) 39.8 40.8 41.8 43.1 44.3 47.2 50.5 53.0 54.6 55.3 55.4 55.4 55.4 LONG(DEG W) 48.9 48.8 48.7 48.3 47.8 46.6 45.0 41.7 36.8 30.8 24.0 17.0 9.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 13 14 16 16 16 17 18 20 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 775 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -11. -16. -20. -22. -22. -23. -23. -23. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 20. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 22. 27. 34. 40. 43. 46. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -2. -1. -5. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 12. 18. 24. 26. 22. 20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 10. 17. 23. 24. 21. 18. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122008 LAURA 09/30/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122008 LAURA 09/30/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED