* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 09/30/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 40 52 60 75 78 88 97 95 97 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 40 52 60 75 78 88 97 95 97 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 45 50 54 SHEAR (KTS) 13 9 8 5 4 4 8 6 2 2 6 3 9 SHEAR DIR 74 85 67 78 116 289 284 335 107 121 283 45 114 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 146 147 148 149 151 149 146 142 140 140 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.1 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 79 75 74 72 72 67 66 62 65 62 55 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 11 13 15 16 24 23 28 31 31 34 850 MB ENV VOR 14 7 1 -4 1 4 12 16 40 58 79 70 82 200 MB DIV 94 94 102 96 110 101 115 71 111 62 13 12 7 LAND (KM) 544 523 510 490 480 461 445 395 408 398 472 589 703 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.7 12.0 13.0 13.9 15.0 15.9 16.9 17.3 17.1 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 96.2 97.0 97.8 98.8 99.7 101.6 103.2 104.8 106.4 107.7 108.9 110.1 110.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 10. 21. 21. 28. 34. 32. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 14. 25. 34. 50. 54. 63. 70. 69. 70. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 10. 15. 27. 35. 50. 53. 63. 72. 70. 72. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 09/30/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 09/30/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY