* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * LAURA AL122008 09/30/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 51 50 50 54 59 65 68 73 78 81 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 51 50 50 54 59 65 68 73 78 81 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 50 49 47 47 47 50 55 62 66 66 SHEAR (KTS) 15 11 8 10 19 31 20 26 28 38 50 53 49 SHEAR DIR 300 283 272 269 288 287 287 290 289 289 292 274 247 SST (C) 22.8 20.9 18.9 16.6 14.0 11.9 12.5 9.9 10.3 11.4 13.3 13.9 14.3 POT. INT. (KT) 91 83 77 72 69 68 68 66 67 68 70 71 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 79 74 70 67 66 66 65 64 65 66 67 68 68 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.0 -57.0 -57.0 -57.0 -56.0 -57.3 -58.1 -59.3 -59.5 -58.4 -57.2 -57.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 58 58 60 61 62 63 57 56 54 54 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 21 20 19 17 19 19 22 20 19 25 33 850 MB ENV VOR 85 84 69 72 68 70 105 121 169 198 210 222 202 200 MB DIV 38 18 13 -2 18 18 62 33 24 -5 3 18 22 LAND (KM) 757 653 563 491 459 536 778 1091 1408 1201 761 318 52 LAT (DEG N) 40.6 41.8 43.0 44.4 45.7 48.7 51.8 54.0 55.2 55.7 55.6 55.6 55.8 LONG(DEG W) 48.9 48.6 48.2 47.8 47.3 45.7 43.2 39.4 34.5 28.5 21.5 14.0 6.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 17 16 15 16 18 20 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 813 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -17. -21. -23. -23. -24. -24. -24. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. 20. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 22. 28. 35. 41. 43. 45. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. -2. -4. -5. -1. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 5. 10. 17. 20. 25. 30. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 4. 9. 15. 18. 23. 28. 31. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122008 LAURA 09/30/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122008 LAURA 09/30/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY