* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 09/30/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 40 51 61 71 78 87 85 92 91 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 40 51 61 71 78 87 85 92 91 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 38 42 45 48 SHEAR (KTS) 7 8 10 3 2 4 8 9 7 8 17 7 11 SHEAR DIR 75 77 84 66 39 312 288 285 247 186 211 147 104 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 27.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 146 147 149 150 152 152 151 149 143 136 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -53.3 -52.3 -53.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.0 -51.0 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 8 5 9 7 11 8 11 9 700-500 MB RH 78 76 74 73 71 67 66 67 65 61 53 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 12 14 18 21 24 29 27 32 34 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -2 -9 0 -3 0 -2 11 17 50 57 60 71 200 MB DIV 82 81 82 108 124 97 57 57 64 58 56 -11 0 LAND (KM) 548 523 500 469 456 405 353 285 268 221 277 417 563 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.2 11.5 12.0 12.4 13.6 14.7 15.7 16.7 17.9 18.6 18.6 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 96.8 97.6 98.4 99.3 100.1 101.7 102.9 104.0 105.3 106.4 107.6 109.2 111.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 9 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 29. 27. 33. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 24. 35. 46. 53. 62. 60. 66. 65. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 15. 26. 36. 46. 53. 62. 60. 67. 66. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 09/30/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 09/30/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED