* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * LAURA AL122008 10/01/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 36 35 40 49 57 61 61 81 85 80 V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 36 35 40 49 57 61 61 81 85 80 V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 36 36 36 37 38 41 47 56 64 66 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 11 18 25 33 25 26 27 35 52 49 32 N/A SHEAR DIR 288 276 299 306 292 284 284 275 271 291 260 243 N/A SST (C) 19.0 17.0 14.6 12.3 11.8 12.7 9.6 9.9 11.4 12.9 13.3 13.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 77 73 69 68 68 69 67 67 68 69 70 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 70 68 66 65 65 66 65 65 66 67 67 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.7 -56.9 -56.4 -55.5 -56.5 -57.5 -60.0 -60.1 -56.6 -54.7 -54.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 62 59 57 60 58 52 55 51 52 51 62 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 18 18 17 18 23 24 20 13 31 36 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 61 57 51 63 99 99 107 158 251 319 277 N/A 200 MB DIV 8 7 11 4 3 57 21 10 -29 -21 -9 29 N/A LAND (KM) 567 501 470 479 525 739 1038 1400 1163 740 393 2 N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.9 44.2 45.4 46.9 48.4 51.6 54.4 56.1 56.8 57.0 57.1 57.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.3 47.8 47.3 46.6 45.8 43.7 40.2 34.7 27.7 20.4 13.3 6.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 16 17 17 17 19 20 20 20 20 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 12 CX,CY: 2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -18. -18. -17. -16. -15. -15. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. 22. 16. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 23. 31. 37. 40. 40. 41. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 2. 2. -1. -7. 7. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -4. 1. 10. 17. 21. 22. 42. 46. 42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -4. -5. 0. 9. 17. 21. 21. 41. 45. 40. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122008 LAURA 10/01/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122008 LAURA 10/01/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY