* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 10/01/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 39 41 40 43 46 45 44 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 39 41 40 43 46 45 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 23 24 25 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 13 14 12 5 4 5 5 7 8 11 12 SHEAR DIR 65 103 93 112 131 134 202 279 276 253 101 133 135 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.5 25.2 25.4 25.8 26.1 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 138 132 127 122 118 115 117 121 123 122 120 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 66 65 61 57 55 53 53 50 51 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 13 14 16 15 15 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 94 91 84 87 91 75 83 74 84 100 107 116 113 200 MB DIV 71 45 40 33 57 39 9 10 33 32 29 20 5 LAND (KM) 939 934 943 958 960 1060 1222 1394 1587 1766 1931 2051 2124 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.7 18.9 18.7 18.3 17.8 17.3 17.0 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.6 116.5 117.4 118.3 120.2 122.3 124.4 126.6 128.4 130.0 131.2 131.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 18. 19. 21. 20. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 15. 18. 21. 20. 19. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 10/01/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 10/01/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY