* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * LAURA AL122008 10/01/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 42 42 47 53 62 67 72 78 76 70 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 42 42 47 53 62 67 72 78 76 70 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 42 42 42 42 43 47 53 61 65 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 13 23 35 29 23 22 28 34 45 50 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 290 305 292 286 284 297 283 297 300 280 N/A N/A SST (C) 16.9 14.9 13.0 11.7 12.8 10.1 9.6 10.7 12.5 13.4 14.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 72 69 68 69 69 67 66 68 69 69 70 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 67 65 66 66 67 65 65 66 67 66 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.9 -56.2 -55.9 -55.7 -57.4 -59.2 -60.6 -60.3 -58.2 -56.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 51 58 63 64 58 59 59 55 51 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 19 18 17 19 20 22 19 18 21 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 63 54 51 64 72 75 118 150 215 213 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 -6 0 14 24 37 33 2 -14 -15 -12 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 485 468 483 521 605 894 1197 1372 901 492 185 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.1 45.3 46.4 48.3 50.2 53.8 55.2 55.9 56.4 56.4 56.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.1 47.4 46.7 45.9 45.0 42.4 37.8 31.2 23.5 16.4 10.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 16 20 20 16 17 20 21 18 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 12 CX,CY: 3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 748 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -13. -18. -20. -21. -20. -20. -20. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 7. 9. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 22. 17. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 20. 27. 35. 42. 46. 47. 48. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. -2. -4. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -3. 3. 9. 18. 22. 27. 34. 31. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -3. -3. 2. 8. 17. 22. 27. 33. 31. 25. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122008 LAURA 10/01/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122008 LAURA 10/01/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED