* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FOURTEEN EP142008 10/01/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 41 43 43 43 45 47 48 50 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 41 43 43 43 45 47 48 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 33 32 31 31 31 32 33 35 SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 13 7 6 6 7 10 3 2 8 8 11 SHEAR DIR 101 91 119 127 155 187 288 297 247 46 110 97 118 SST (C) 28.0 27.5 26.8 26.3 26.0 25.5 25.2 25.2 25.7 26.3 26.5 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 132 126 123 118 115 116 120 126 127 126 126 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 75 75 67 65 63 59 57 52 48 48 54 51 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 14 15 16 14 14 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 93 83 85 91 87 70 76 57 78 90 103 110 121 200 MB DIV 46 30 14 28 35 4 2 0 24 45 37 16 23 LAND (KM) 943 929 927 931 946 1065 1250 1467 1687 1896 2068 2170 2240 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.1 18.5 17.8 16.9 16.2 15.8 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.2 117.0 117.9 118.7 120.7 122.8 125.2 127.4 129.2 130.7 131.6 132.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 9 9 10 11 11 10 9 6 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 18. 19. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 15. 17. 18. 20. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 FOURTEEN 10/01/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 FOURTEEN 10/01/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY