* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 10/01/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 36 47 56 62 70 76 84 92 88 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 36 47 56 62 70 76 50 50 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 29 32 35 32 35 38 SHEAR (KTS) 18 11 6 5 6 9 12 6 11 16 12 16 10 SHEAR DIR 64 80 67 53 343 327 297 296 222 220 217 227 196 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 145 146 145 147 148 152 156 158 160 162 154 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 74 70 68 65 64 61 64 57 60 52 52 52 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 16 19 20 22 26 27 33 31 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -5 11 11 9 16 30 37 71 53 62 63 67 200 MB DIV 72 71 77 95 74 54 50 64 36 36 18 50 8 LAND (KM) 474 434 394 363 336 283 235 150 69 11 -24 47 225 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.8 14.5 15.6 16.7 17.9 19.1 20.2 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 97.6 98.1 98.6 98.9 99.2 99.4 99.9 100.5 101.2 102.4 104.0 106.1 108.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 5 4 4 5 6 7 9 11 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 20. 25. 29. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 14. 16. 20. 24. 29. 35. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 22. 32. 39. 47. 52. 58. 66. 62. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 11. 22. 31. 37. 45. 51. 59. 67. 63. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 10/01/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 10/01/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY