* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * LAURA AL122008 10/01/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 39 41 48 56 65 70 79 81 77 73 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 39 41 48 56 65 70 79 81 77 73 V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 38 38 38 39 42 48 56 63 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 18 28 28 24 26 26 36 46 51 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 304 297 285 279 286 300 292 301 286 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 14.1 12.3 12.3 13.1 12.3 9.4 10.6 12.1 13.2 14.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 69 68 68 69 69 67 68 69 70 71 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 66 65 66 67 66 66 66 66 67 67 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.1 -56.7 -56.8 -57.0 -58.5 -60.2 -60.4 -58.8 -56.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 54 58 64 65 64 67 67 55 47 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 19 17 17 18 19 20 18 22 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 35 32 37 44 42 74 106 168 255 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -13 11 16 33 23 23 -23 -29 -11 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 489 512 570 654 772 1112 1423 988 583 232 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 45.7 47.1 48.5 50.3 52.0 54.9 56.0 56.5 56.6 56.6 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.9 46.1 45.2 44.3 43.4 39.1 32.0 24.9 17.9 10.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 17 18 18 19 20 20 20 20 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 16 CX,CY: 5/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -18. -18. -17. -16. -15. -15. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 22. 16. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 23. 31. 39. 44. 48. 49. 50. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 8. 16. 25. 30. 39. 41. 37. 33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. 1. 8. 16. 25. 30. 39. 41. 37. 33. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122008 LAURA 10/01/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122008 LAURA 10/01/08 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING