* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/01/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 55 58 59 60 61 61 58 55 50 45 42 V (KT) LAND 45 51 55 58 59 60 61 61 58 55 50 45 42 V (KT) LGE mod 45 52 57 59 60 59 57 54 52 49 46 44 40 SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 9 8 9 5 5 7 3 8 13 19 17 SHEAR DIR 81 107 99 105 111 296 294 206 240 122 123 135 132 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 131 128 125 123 122 120 117 115 116 115 115 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 73 66 67 64 63 59 56 56 54 54 57 54 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 15 15 14 14 14 16 15 14 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 86 89 90 88 82 74 62 53 46 48 64 76 93 200 MB DIV 46 39 36 17 9 14 7 25 42 30 0 9 19 LAND (KM) 915 939 958 976 1001 1082 1194 1277 1338 1400 1463 1535 1618 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.7 117.4 118.2 118.9 120.2 121.5 122.5 123.2 124.0 124.8 125.8 127.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 4 4 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 9. 7. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 16. 12. 7. 2. -2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 13. 10. 5. 0. -3. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/01/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/01/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED