* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 10/01/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 48 56 62 67 73 77 82 78 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 48 56 62 44 33 29 27 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 27 27 27 27 30 SHEAR (KTS) 14 8 4 3 6 9 8 10 14 13 10 16 20 SHEAR DIR 69 65 29 335 350 302 307 251 243 248 253 238 249 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 146 145 146 148 151 153 157 158 159 164 166 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 6 5 8 4 8 5 9 7 11 7 700-500 MB RH 73 70 66 66 64 65 63 60 54 53 49 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 12 11 14 16 18 19 21 24 23 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR -5 10 10 12 10 20 27 47 60 64 48 72 74 200 MB DIV 74 69 101 94 69 36 45 18 1 -6 11 6 17 LAND (KM) 439 396 355 327 301 213 125 25 -44 -100 -151 -41 0 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.5 14.5 15.5 16.7 17.8 18.9 20.1 21.1 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 98.1 98.5 98.8 99.0 99.1 99.4 99.7 100.2 101.0 102.1 103.4 104.8 105.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 20. 26. 30. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 11. 14. 17. 21. 22. 25. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 22. 30. 37. 43. 49. 51. 56. 52. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 31. 37. 42. 48. 52. 57. 53. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 10/01/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 10/01/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED