* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/01/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 50 52 50 47 45 43 41 41 40 39 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 50 52 50 47 45 43 41 41 40 39 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 53 54 54 53 51 49 45 42 39 37 36 SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 9 12 5 10 14 14 11 13 9 6 4 SHEAR DIR 106 87 96 116 117 289 284 253 252 190 193 193 203 SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 125 124 124 120 119 117 113 113 112 112 111 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 64 59 55 51 52 53 53 48 51 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 101 98 93 89 89 72 81 68 79 86 106 98 200 MB DIV 41 15 16 17 8 37 12 48 38 25 5 11 5 LAND (KM) 942 954 974 1011 1051 1123 1215 1293 1361 1430 1511 1564 1603 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.8 118.5 119.2 119.8 120.9 122.0 122.9 123.8 124.8 125.9 126.6 127.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 4 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 11. 10. 8. 6. 2. -1. -2. -3. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 5. 7. 5. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/01/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/01/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY