* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 10/01/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 42 47 56 65 71 76 80 85 88 85 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 42 47 56 65 71 76 60 41 37 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 39 41 44 48 42 33 29 37 SHEAR (KTS) 10 7 3 7 8 10 5 7 6 6 12 12 16 SHEAR DIR 70 37 354 345 329 313 322 260 239 243 208 243 261 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 145 147 148 150 154 157 158 159 163 165 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 5 7 6 7 7 7 8 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 72 69 69 65 63 67 60 63 56 55 49 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 12 12 13 15 17 19 21 21 23 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 8 5 7 10 20 26 30 57 57 53 41 76 66 200 MB DIV 70 72 69 70 72 57 47 13 10 8 22 2 25 LAND (KM) 381 353 329 301 274 217 148 73 28 -32 -73 0 21 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.5 15.4 16.4 17.4 18.4 19.7 20.9 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 98.5 98.8 99.0 99.1 99.2 99.5 100.0 100.6 101.6 102.9 104.2 105.5 105.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 4 4 5 6 8 9 9 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 21. 23. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 34. 41. 47. 50. 55. 58. 55. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 12. 17. 26. 35. 41. 46. 50. 55. 58. 55. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 10/01/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 10/01/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY