* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/02/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 50 51 53 52 50 45 42 39 37 35 V (KT) LAND 45 46 49 50 51 53 52 50 45 42 39 37 35 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 44 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 38 37 SHEAR (KTS) 15 10 2 1 3 9 7 8 8 9 11 10 14 SHEAR DIR 91 89 105 244 277 258 193 224 151 147 127 120 108 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 126 124 122 119 117 114 113 113 114 114 115 114 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.9 -52.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 3 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 59 56 55 52 51 52 49 52 49 52 54 52 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 15 16 15 17 17 17 16 16 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 93 83 77 79 79 71 60 63 65 84 97 107 112 200 MB DIV 7 20 6 3 5 18 28 12 -13 11 7 0 18 LAND (KM) 1049 1071 1097 1134 1173 1260 1341 1403 1468 1527 1595 1649 1705 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.6 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 119.1 119.7 120.3 120.9 121.5 122.6 123.5 124.3 125.1 125.8 126.6 127.3 128.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 373 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/02/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/02/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY