* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 10/02/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 41 46 55 64 70 75 78 84 84 76 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 41 46 55 64 70 75 78 84 84 76 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 39 42 45 49 54 58 60 60 SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 7 7 4 5 5 8 9 6 7 10 11 SHEAR DIR 35 30 3 7 344 288 214 222 170 135 151 156 118 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.3 27.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 147 147 150 152 155 156 153 148 138 126 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 7 8 5 8 6 11 9 11 7 6 700-500 MB RH 73 69 68 64 66 64 60 59 55 54 50 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 13 15 17 19 20 22 23 19 850 MB ENV VOR 0 5 7 17 20 28 45 50 41 27 35 32 54 200 MB DIV 71 58 70 63 35 50 47 27 13 18 10 8 -4 LAND (KM) 374 341 312 293 276 232 180 171 151 203 341 434 446 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.7 15.6 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 98.7 98.9 99.1 99.4 99.7 100.3 101.2 102.3 104.0 106.0 108.2 110.3 112.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 8 9 10 11 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 20. 20. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 23. 32. 39. 45. 48. 53. 53. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 11. 16. 25. 34. 40. 45. 48. 54. 54. 46. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 10/02/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 10/02/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY