* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/02/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 50 49 51 50 51 48 46 44 38 36 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 50 49 51 50 51 48 46 44 38 36 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 44 43 41 40 39 39 38 36 35 33 SHEAR (KTS) 13 8 2 8 10 4 3 6 10 9 18 14 15 SHEAR DIR 78 77 311 289 304 12 173 138 121 94 115 101 112 SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.4 25.5 25.7 25.7 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 124 123 120 118 116 116 114 116 118 118 117 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 53 54 50 50 50 49 50 49 52 55 55 50 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 20 21 21 19 22 21 23 23 23 22 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 77 74 73 72 71 54 57 53 62 83 95 77 72 200 MB DIV 23 7 -7 9 -19 -26 33 7 28 4 20 -30 4 LAND (KM) 1083 1120 1160 1205 1252 1346 1409 1458 1499 1573 1664 1734 1809 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.1 18.2 18.1 17.8 17.9 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.4 121.0 121.6 122.2 123.3 124.0 124.6 125.3 126.2 127.1 128.1 129.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 6 6 6 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 419 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 5. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 2. 4. 2. 1. -2. -9. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 4. 6. 5. 6. 3. 1. -1. -7. -9. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/02/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/02/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY