* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 10/02/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 41 45 47 50 53 56 55 54 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 36 41 45 47 50 53 56 55 54 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 35 37 40 41 42 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 15 15 12 9 14 15 12 15 16 21 20 SHEAR DIR 7 342 349 345 344 291 263 275 281 244 232 229 240 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 147 148 150 153 156 157 156 152 145 135 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 6 7 7 8 8 10 10 7 6 700-500 MB RH 73 70 67 68 69 62 61 57 58 52 50 45 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 4 11 17 23 35 55 47 50 36 46 54 80 200 MB DIV 75 66 45 10 24 60 47 22 13 29 26 35 0 LAND (KM) 355 320 285 255 230 169 143 137 107 137 236 284 220 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.2 15.1 15.8 16.6 17.5 18.5 19.6 20.4 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 98.3 98.5 98.6 98.9 99.1 99.8 100.8 102.2 103.9 105.9 107.8 109.4 110.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 9 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 24. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 15. 17. 20. 23. 26. 25. 24. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 10/02/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 10/02/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY