* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/02/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 38 40 42 42 44 44 40 37 36 32 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 38 40 42 42 44 44 40 37 36 32 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 37 36 35 34 34 34 33 33 32 30 28 SHEAR (KTS) 7 4 7 3 1 1 5 7 12 13 17 20 15 SHEAR DIR 73 10 321 319 352 275 297 113 149 94 116 114 137 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 124 123 121 119 118 117 117 118 118 118 118 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.1 -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 55 52 52 48 50 51 53 50 56 57 52 46 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 20 21 22 23 23 24 24 21 20 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 71 65 63 61 52 34 36 47 74 96 92 98 86 200 MB DIV 27 15 20 -4 -15 27 16 30 43 53 4 -6 -14 LAND (KM) 1097 1136 1176 1225 1276 1357 1426 1502 1581 1656 1726 1807 1897 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.0 18.0 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.0 120.6 121.2 121.8 122.4 123.2 124.0 125.0 126.1 127.1 128.0 129.0 130.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 9. 5. 2. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 2. -2. -3. -7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 4. 4. 0. -3. -4. -8. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/02/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/02/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED