* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 10/02/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 43 46 49 52 55 57 57 56 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 43 46 49 52 55 57 57 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 35 38 41 43 43 SHEAR (KTS) 12 14 13 11 9 6 17 10 12 16 15 19 18 SHEAR DIR 7 357 3 354 306 269 280 264 279 244 240 241 253 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 27.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 147 148 151 153 157 157 156 152 141 131 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -53.1 -52.6 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 5 8 5 10 8 12 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 69 65 62 59 57 54 51 48 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 9 17 23 25 40 56 51 30 47 46 69 73 200 MB DIV 60 55 13 20 49 53 20 18 24 13 9 20 -21 LAND (KM) 337 302 269 235 204 149 122 132 107 143 252 278 274 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.3 16.0 16.8 17.7 18.8 19.7 20.4 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 98.5 98.7 98.8 99.0 99.2 99.8 100.8 102.4 104.2 106.2 108.0 109.8 111.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 9 10 10 9 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 25. 24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 16. 19. 22. 25. 27. 27. 26. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 10/02/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 10/02/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED