* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NONAME AL852008 10/02/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 29 36 42 46 45 44 43 42 38 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 29 30 28 27 30 29 28 26 22 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 21 25 26 29 28 26 24 22 SHEAR (KTS) 11 17 18 16 14 19 20 28 27 32 30 46 44 SHEAR DIR 213 220 236 252 248 240 236 251 266 281 279 282 284 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 157 157 154 155 155 151 149 148 146 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 144 146 145 142 142 141 135 132 130 127 124 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 9 7 8 6 8 9 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 74 71 71 63 63 65 59 63 55 51 50 48 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 33 43 46 48 49 26 18 3 -13 -2 -10 3 200 MB DIV 45 54 58 55 64 39 33 38 22 10 27 18 7 LAND (KM) 38 68 98 153 122 -23 -157 -41 60 177 285 396 450 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.6 19.5 20.5 21.4 22.3 23.1 24.0 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 85.5 85.7 85.9 86.4 86.8 87.8 89.0 90.0 90.7 91.3 91.9 92.4 92.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 5 6 6 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 39 88 96 86 78 9999 9999 9999 8 29 52 53 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 19. 24. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -5. -10. -13. -17. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 26. 25. 23. 20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 22. 26. 25. 24. 23. 22. 18. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL852008 NONAME 10/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL852008 NONAME 10/02/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY