* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/02/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 49 50 49 48 47 42 38 36 31 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 49 50 49 48 47 42 38 36 31 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 47 47 46 45 43 42 41 39 37 34 SHEAR (KTS) 5 7 6 5 5 4 6 10 9 14 17 21 17 SHEAR DIR 29 316 335 337 2 314 20 117 113 101 100 120 124 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 127 125 124 121 121 120 119 119 120 121 120 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 51 52 48 49 46 49 49 48 50 50 48 42 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 21 22 22 23 23 23 24 21 18 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 63 58 55 51 42 39 37 60 89 113 109 104 78 200 MB DIV 0 11 6 -26 -13 28 2 51 26 48 11 12 -2 LAND (KM) 1166 1217 1268 1312 1357 1409 1476 1550 1627 1703 1772 1852 1943 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.6 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.5 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 120.6 121.2 121.8 122.3 122.8 123.5 124.2 125.2 126.4 127.4 128.2 129.2 130.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 5 5 4 4 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 2. -2. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. -1. -6. -9. -13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. -3. -7. -9. -14. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/02/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY