* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 10/02/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 48 52 55 56 57 58 58 57 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 48 52 55 56 57 58 58 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 31 33 35 38 41 43 44 44 44 SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 6 6 2 11 19 17 22 19 17 19 15 SHEAR DIR 356 2 357 263 268 253 258 262 243 246 236 227 228 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.2 27.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 149 150 153 156 157 156 152 145 135 125 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 5 7 7 8 9 10 10 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 63 61 61 56 53 54 52 52 48 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 20 26 40 44 67 52 40 30 32 42 82 91 200 MB DIV 49 16 33 35 41 37 19 26 54 15 16 18 16 LAND (KM) 238 210 184 159 135 109 103 95 127 219 353 339 385 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.4 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.3 19.1 19.7 19.9 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 98.8 99.0 99.2 99.5 99.7 100.5 101.8 103.5 105.5 107.3 109.0 110.6 112.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 6 8 9 10 9 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 21. 26. 29. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 16. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 28. 28. 27. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 10/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 10/02/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY