* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/03/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 51 52 50 54 47 40 40 39 36 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 51 52 50 54 47 40 40 39 36 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 43 42 41 39 37 36 35 33 32 31 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 10 8 7 11 4 6 11 13 6 6 11 SHEAR DIR 352 360 355 358 334 328 62 111 103 122 98 97 95 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 125 124 122 120 117 117 117 118 118 118 118 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.8 -51.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 50 49 51 48 46 49 48 50 52 56 51 47 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 20 21 23 23 23 26 23 20 20 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 57 55 50 42 35 34 39 62 87 110 95 83 81 200 MB DIV 12 7 -14 -13 11 7 42 38 52 -9 -14 4 -2 LAND (KM) 1220 1268 1316 1348 1382 1419 1461 1531 1611 1687 1751 1839 1931 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.7 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 18.0 17.9 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 121.2 121.8 122.3 122.7 123.1 123.7 124.4 125.4 126.5 127.5 128.4 129.4 130.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 10. 6. 2. 2. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 6. 1. -6. -6. -7. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 9. 2. -5. -5. -6. -9. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/03/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/03/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY