* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 10/03/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 45 54 61 67 70 71 72 70 70 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 45 54 61 67 70 71 72 70 70 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 33 37 41 47 52 54 54 52 SHEAR (KTS) 9 8 8 9 10 8 11 6 14 17 26 22 23 SHEAR DIR 54 83 122 136 148 223 165 181 161 142 143 124 114 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 150 150 152 154 153 149 146 142 141 144 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -53.3 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 8 6 10 9 12 9 9 7 6 700-500 MB RH 73 71 66 63 62 58 59 56 52 51 50 54 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 17 27 38 45 49 56 54 44 54 46 48 71 92 200 MB DIV 25 30 47 54 62 26 13 12 4 49 65 27 24 LAND (KM) 257 231 204 185 166 175 200 221 306 441 619 758 878 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.0 17.1 16.9 16.4 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 99.5 99.7 99.9 100.2 100.4 101.3 102.8 104.6 106.5 108.4 110.3 112.2 113.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 20. 25. 27. 29. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 10. 12. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 19. 26. 33. 37. 40. 40. 38. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 15. 24. 31. 37. 40. 42. 42. 40. 40. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 10/03/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 10/03/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY