* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/03/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 54 54 56 54 54 49 45 40 38 34 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 54 54 56 54 54 49 45 40 38 34 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 51 51 50 48 45 44 42 40 38 36 34 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 8 7 8 5 4 7 10 5 17 13 12 SHEAR DIR 347 339 329 277 275 326 118 108 125 76 105 113 126 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.4 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 122 121 120 118 115 114 115 115 115 116 114 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 53 55 49 48 49 50 51 51 53 53 51 42 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 22 22 22 24 22 24 22 20 18 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 52 43 35 28 25 23 41 76 93 83 70 69 77 200 MB DIV 10 -19 -4 9 -10 1 26 38 65 1 -1 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 1245 1278 1311 1333 1355 1392 1434 1504 1595 1681 1763 1872 2007 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.3 18.4 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 121.7 122.1 122.5 122.8 123.1 123.6 124.5 125.6 126.7 127.8 128.9 130.2 131.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 5. 8. 6. 3. 0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 4. 5. 1. -4. -9. -12. -16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 4. 4. -1. -5. -10. -12. -16. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/03/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/03/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY