* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 10/03/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 36 44 51 57 63 68 70 69 67 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 36 44 51 57 63 68 70 69 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 23 24 26 29 33 37 40 41 42 SHEAR (KTS) 6 7 8 9 9 11 10 8 11 14 18 21 22 SHEAR DIR 85 134 144 165 207 226 239 195 163 141 135 123 110 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.3 27.8 27.6 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 150 152 154 155 152 147 142 140 143 147 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 7 8 10 11 11 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 71 67 63 62 62 57 56 53 48 47 50 47 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 12 13 13 14 15 15 16 17 17 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 26 40 47 59 69 57 55 42 47 43 75 93 126 200 MB DIV 48 73 72 50 33 18 31 35 4 25 35 11 46 LAND (KM) 236 211 187 172 157 167 182 255 368 548 708 849 988 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.2 17.2 16.7 16.0 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.0 100.2 100.6 100.9 102.1 103.7 105.7 107.6 109.7 111.6 113.5 114.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 7 9 10 10 10 10 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 27. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 9. 17. 25. 32. 39. 42. 44. 42. 41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 7. 11. 19. 26. 32. 38. 43. 45. 44. 42. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 10/03/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 10/03/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY