* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/03/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 67 68 69 66 61 55 48 43 38 32 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 67 68 69 66 61 55 48 43 38 32 V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 66 65 64 59 55 51 48 45 41 38 34 SHEAR (KTS) 12 6 7 8 8 1 5 11 5 8 7 13 10 SHEAR DIR 334 340 265 238 267 68 149 137 120 111 124 120 141 SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.8 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 122 121 120 117 116 114 114 111 109 109 108 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -53.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 53 49 49 48 51 50 55 51 49 49 42 39 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 21 21 21 23 23 22 20 18 16 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 44 31 27 19 15 12 35 69 85 74 62 79 79 200 MB DIV -16 -3 21 -12 -34 25 15 48 28 18 4 -7 0 LAND (KM) 1270 1294 1319 1341 1363 1394 1427 1504 1596 1679 1742 1861 1996 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.9 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.1 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.3 122.6 122.9 123.2 123.7 124.4 125.6 127.0 128.3 129.3 130.6 132.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 7 5 6 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 0. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 6. 1. -5. -11. -16. -22. -27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 6. 1. -5. -12. -17. -22. -28. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/03/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/03/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED