* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 10/03/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 41 47 53 58 60 61 62 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 41 47 53 58 60 61 62 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 22 23 25 28 31 34 35 36 35 SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 11 9 8 11 10 11 11 19 21 27 26 SHEAR DIR 112 134 140 154 170 155 187 172 153 147 129 122 107 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.8 28.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 149 150 151 153 153 150 147 143 142 145 148 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 6 10 8 12 10 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 71 67 67 65 61 60 60 57 54 50 49 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 14 15 14 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 27 39 47 55 57 53 50 56 50 59 68 79 87 200 MB DIV 76 87 60 38 53 25 28 38 10 35 25 25 26 LAND (KM) 290 258 226 219 212 224 242 319 428 603 781 899 1039 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.6 16.7 16.6 16.1 15.6 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.2 100.4 100.7 101.0 102.3 104.1 106.0 107.9 109.9 111.9 113.7 115.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 20. 27. 32. 35. 35. 35. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 22. 28. 33. 36. 37. 37. 34. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 10/03/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 10/03/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED