* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/03/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 70 70 72 68 64 55 49 44 38 33 27 V (KT) LAND 65 68 70 70 72 68 64 55 49 44 38 33 27 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 70 70 68 62 56 51 46 41 37 34 31 SHEAR (KTS) 7 1 0 7 4 4 8 10 4 14 10 8 8 SHEAR DIR 343 224 257 263 273 187 107 137 148 109 111 125 131 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.6 25.4 25.2 25.0 25.0 25.2 25.1 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 124 122 121 116 115 114 112 111 113 112 106 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 49 51 51 51 50 51 57 55 53 46 45 38 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 21 21 24 22 23 20 19 18 15 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 27 22 16 9 9 20 41 61 59 60 58 69 91 200 MB DIV -8 30 8 -27 3 19 13 51 9 -12 0 -4 -15 LAND (KM) 1292 1308 1324 1335 1346 1395 1434 1496 1613 1738 1850 1944 1999 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.0 18.6 18.6 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 122.1 122.3 122.4 122.7 123.0 123.8 124.5 125.7 127.5 129.1 130.1 131.2 132.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 7 8 6 5 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 9. 6. 2. -6. -13. -19. -25. -30. -36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 5. 7. 3. -1. -10. -16. -21. -27. -32. -38. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/03/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/03/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY