* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 10/03/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 44 50 55 59 61 61 60 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 44 50 55 59 61 61 60 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 31 33 35 36 37 36 SHEAR (KTS) 11 14 13 12 12 9 10 16 17 17 20 23 24 SHEAR DIR 114 128 144 155 154 160 177 168 156 148 113 120 101 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 148 149 150 152 152 150 146 144 144 147 149 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 8 11 11 10 10 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 68 63 63 61 56 51 50 45 47 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 11 13 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 36 41 46 46 49 55 53 62 64 89 83 94 92 200 MB DIV 76 47 35 50 41 25 48 31 37 51 48 42 25 LAND (KM) 292 268 245 246 248 261 276 358 475 650 846 966 1082 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.2 16.2 15.9 15.5 14.9 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 99.6 99.8 99.9 100.4 100.9 102.3 104.2 106.0 108.0 109.9 111.9 113.6 115.2 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 5 6 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 26. 29. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 21. 28. 33. 34. 35. 34. 31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 25. 30. 34. 36. 36. 35. 32. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 10/03/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 10/03/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED