* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FIFTEEN EP152008 10/04/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 47 54 58 59 58 60 59 55 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 47 54 58 59 58 60 59 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 34 34 36 38 40 41 42 41 40 SHEAR (KTS) 17 15 13 12 14 9 18 20 21 18 21 13 19 SHEAR DIR 108 135 140 140 141 159 159 163 153 146 140 111 112 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 146 148 150 153 154 155 152 148 143 140 137 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 9 6 12 10 12 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 67 66 65 64 57 51 46 45 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 11 12 13 13 12 13 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 31 36 37 39 42 52 69 69 84 76 90 86 83 200 MB DIV 62 47 42 41 41 26 61 16 50 7 50 -13 3 LAND (KM) 309 274 240 223 206 192 192 175 245 352 495 638 695 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.4 16.2 16.9 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.0 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 99.3 99.2 99.1 99.4 99.7 101.0 102.5 104.1 105.7 107.4 109.1 110.6 111.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 20. 25. 27. 29. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 5. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 21. 26. 28. 28. 29. 28. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 24. 28. 29. 28. 30. 29. 25. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 FIFTEEN 10/04/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 FIFTEEN 10/04/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY