* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP972008 10/04/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 35 43 50 55 56 56 57 55 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 35 43 50 55 56 56 57 55 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 37 41 44 45 45 43 SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 7 8 6 7 6 7 14 19 21 21 28 SHEAR DIR 62 31 22 37 41 4 221 204 221 230 227 228 216 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 145 144 144 144 144 143 139 136 135 133 133 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -54.4 -53.8 -54.4 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 -55.0 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 51 53 53 52 53 56 56 55 52 47 46 43 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 66 66 54 49 53 40 29 15 21 12 1 -13 -35 200 MB DIV 75 52 35 56 68 68 98 63 14 7 -8 -23 -5 LAND (KM) 1173 1115 1077 1061 1063 1114 1171 1251 1313 1340 1315 1270 1224 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.6 11.3 12.2 13.3 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 151.3 152.8 154.2 155.5 156.8 159.2 161.1 162.9 164.4 165.7 166.8 167.6 168.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 13 12 11 9 9 7 7 7 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 8. 15. 23. 29. 30. 31. 31. 29. 31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 10. 18. 25. 30. 31. 31. 32. 30. 32. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP972008 INVEST 10/04/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP972008 INVEST 10/04/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY