* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/04/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 66 64 61 50 41 30 26 22 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 68 66 64 61 50 41 30 26 22 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 68 65 61 53 46 40 36 33 30 28 26 SHEAR (KTS) 8 11 6 8 9 8 9 4 9 6 13 6 12 SHEAR DIR 222 233 212 137 135 147 131 103 114 70 125 129 163 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.0 24.7 24.7 24.8 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 119 117 116 111 108 108 109 110 109 109 107 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 50 50 51 52 50 48 42 42 42 37 32 32 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 20 21 21 19 18 14 14 12 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 7 6 9 16 26 52 77 75 81 76 90 97 88 200 MB DIV 11 -25 -19 4 24 11 21 16 12 24 13 -14 -13 LAND (KM) 1242 1248 1254 1282 1310 1363 1427 1535 1650 1766 1854 2005 2188 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.1 19.2 18.9 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.2 122.3 122.7 123.1 124.2 125.4 126.8 128.2 129.5 130.6 132.1 134.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 6 6 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -18. -21. -23. -25. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -6. -7. -9. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -16. -24. -35. -40. -46. -53. -56. -57. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -9. -20. -29. -40. -44. -48. -55. -58. -59. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/04/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/04/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY