* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FIFTEEN EP152008 10/04/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 38 43 48 51 53 56 59 59 59 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 38 43 48 51 53 56 59 59 59 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 35 37 38 41 43 44 43 42 SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 12 17 11 12 14 20 20 27 27 26 23 SHEAR DIR 99 114 117 118 126 146 149 144 135 137 151 161 129 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 146 147 147 149 149 148 149 151 150 149 149 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 9 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 73 71 69 68 69 66 69 64 64 65 66 65 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 30 30 40 39 47 65 80 139 131 114 94 94 200 MB DIV 41 37 39 47 46 81 63 64 70 84 69 75 87 LAND (KM) 277 278 280 283 285 298 305 303 289 269 284 283 255 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 98.7 98.9 99.1 99.5 99.9 101.1 102.2 102.7 103.0 103.6 104.7 105.4 105.9 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 5 6 4 2 2 5 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 29. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 26. 29. 29. 29. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 FIFTEEN 10/04/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 FIFTEEN 10/04/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY