* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP972008 10/04/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 47 48 51 51 51 50 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 47 48 51 51 51 50 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 37 38 38 36 34 SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 11 9 12 4 8 14 20 22 25 32 41 SHEAR DIR 28 25 32 46 33 67 273 250 250 258 243 229 225 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 144 144 143 142 140 137 134 133 134 134 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -53.7 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 56 52 54 55 54 56 55 56 53 50 49 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 9 8 6 7 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 60 52 47 42 38 29 22 18 18 10 -3 -29 -32 200 MB DIV 62 40 44 56 60 77 42 18 6 13 -11 17 19 LAND (KM) 1173 1116 1074 1055 1052 1071 1116 1171 1205 1206 1147 1083 1023 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.5 11.2 12.2 13.3 14.6 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 151.8 153.1 154.4 155.6 156.8 158.9 160.6 162.2 163.6 164.8 165.7 166.5 167.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 12 12 11 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 0. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 23. 25. 28. 27. 25. 24. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 22. 23. 26. 26. 26. 25. 24. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP972008 INVEST 10/04/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP972008 INVEST 10/04/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED