* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/04/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 60 58 55 47 39 32 28 21 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 60 58 55 47 39 32 28 21 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 62 58 55 51 45 40 36 33 31 28 26 24 SHEAR (KTS) 12 8 3 6 8 8 5 4 4 12 13 14 10 SHEAR DIR 230 227 172 168 184 149 153 132 149 100 119 146 215 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.7 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 119 118 117 115 113 110 107 109 108 107 107 107 106 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 52 51 54 50 51 47 45 40 40 38 35 33 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 20 21 21 18 17 14 15 11 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 9 18 26 40 58 71 70 84 92 108 97 200 MB DIV 0 6 -3 13 0 22 17 14 15 12 -10 -23 -11 LAND (KM) 1244 1238 1232 1250 1266 1317 1396 1520 1653 1790 1892 2026 2160 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.3 19.0 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 122.1 122.2 122.2 122.6 122.9 123.9 125.1 126.7 128.4 130.0 131.1 132.4 133.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 4 4 5 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -6. -5. -10. -12. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -19. -26. -33. -36. -43. -48. -50. -53. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -7. -10. -18. -26. -33. -37. -44. -48. -50. -53. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/04/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/04/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED