* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT MISSING * * FIFTEEN EP152008 10/04/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 42 47 50 54 59 60 62 62 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 42 47 50 54 59 60 62 62 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 38 39 SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 16 12 14 17 16 20 19 17 14 17 20 SHEAR DIR 127 123 120 124 122 129 136 129 138 147 162 150 148 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 147 148 148 148 149 150 149 149 147 147 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 9 8 7 11 9 12 9 11 9 10 7 700-500 MB RH 72 69 71 73 71 72 69 64 64 69 72 72 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 13 15 14 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 32 36 39 41 42 52 65 76 92 70 68 73 106 200 MB DIV 39 37 39 47 54 103 45 46 67 72 55 77 58 LAND (KM) 254 265 276 284 291 321 340 339 310 301 314 306 315 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 99.2 99.5 99.7 100.1 100.5 101.4 102.5 103.4 104.3 105.0 105.7 106.5 107.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 24. 29. 30. 32. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 24. 29. 30. 32. 32. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 FIFTEEN 10/04/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 FIFTEEN 10/04/08 12 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART