* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL962008 10/04/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 34 40 46 49 51 51 52 51 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 30 36 43 49 34 29 27 27 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 23 25 29 31 33 34 29 27 27 27 28 SHEAR (KTS) 6 11 11 16 16 19 18 22 27 22 30 25 30 SHEAR DIR 209 211 210 210 219 252 250 259 244 241 220 227 229 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.5 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 162 164 164 155 149 145 148 153 161 168 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 155 155 157 157 144 136 130 134 141 150 158 153 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 9 8 10 10 10 7 8 6 8 700-500 MB RH 73 74 73 72 67 65 63 64 63 63 62 62 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 35 26 9 26 10 -6 57 29 27 36 54 75 200 MB DIV 50 53 47 43 23 29 25 24 29 41 58 51 40 LAND (KM) 21 -90 -109 -3 44 153 101 12 -99 -286 -259 -10 173 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.9 20.7 21.2 21.4 21.3 21.1 21.1 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 88.0 89.1 90.1 91.2 92.3 94.4 95.9 97.2 98.6 100.5 102.7 105.1 107.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 11 11 9 7 6 8 9 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. 0. -4. -8. -10. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 31. 32. 31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 31. 32. 31. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 10/04/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 10/04/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY