* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/04/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 47 44 41 34 27 21 20 18 17 18 17 V (KT) LAND 55 50 47 44 41 34 27 21 20 18 17 18 17 V (KT) LGE mod 55 49 45 41 38 33 30 27 26 25 24 23 23 SHEAR (KTS) 10 4 6 5 2 6 1 6 3 5 6 8 6 SHEAR DIR 246 217 174 174 192 109 359 112 62 103 138 182 183 SST (C) 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 118 116 116 114 114 110 107 109 110 111 111 111 110 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 51 53 53 51 46 45 43 38 39 36 33 32 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 20 20 20 19 17 16 15 14 13 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 12 20 29 63 72 85 96 112 120 113 105 200 MB DIV 9 -1 16 4 6 11 13 -22 2 -4 -9 -11 -3 LAND (KM) 1245 1244 1243 1272 1295 1368 1449 1560 1698 1806 1899 2006 2121 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.3 19.1 19.0 18.9 18.6 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 122.2 122.3 122.4 122.8 123.2 124.5 125.8 127.2 128.7 129.9 130.9 131.9 133.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 6 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -15. -21. -28. -33. -34. -37. -38. -37. -39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -8. -11. -14. -21. -28. -33. -35. -37. -38. -37. -38. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/04/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/04/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY