* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FIFTEEN EP152008 10/04/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 52 55 59 62 61 57 56 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 52 55 59 62 61 57 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 34 37 40 42 44 44 44 42 SHEAR (KTS) 12 14 11 12 12 12 14 17 21 16 28 28 21 SHEAR DIR 121 118 121 125 140 144 141 144 153 135 133 125 153 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 148 148 148 150 151 150 149 147 145 143 141 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 68 70 71 68 64 67 62 62 62 69 67 69 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 11 12 12 14 15 14 12 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 42 47 49 50 67 67 93 102 112 115 105 117 200 MB DIV 34 22 27 54 76 50 63 52 69 73 83 69 57 LAND (KM) 274 287 300 310 320 326 301 298 322 359 414 447 472 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.9 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 100.1 100.4 100.7 101.2 101.6 102.6 103.6 104.6 105.6 106.6 107.6 108.3 108.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 415 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 24. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 1. 5. 5. 4. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 22. 25. 30. 32. 31. 27. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 25. 29. 32. 31. 27. 26. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 FIFTEEN 10/04/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 FIFTEEN 10/04/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED