* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL962008 10/05/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 28 33 40 44 45 45 45 43 41 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 29 32 37 44 48 35 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 25 28 29 31 33 34 29 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 15 15 17 14 24 25 34 33 36 38 43 SHEAR DIR 193 214 215 222 224 270 239 250 241 242 236 243 243 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.8 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 164 166 162 153 147 144 146 152 158 166 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 156 157 159 154 141 133 129 130 138 144 151 152 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 9 10 7 13 9 11 6 9 4 8 700-500 MB RH 74 73 71 67 67 65 64 64 67 61 63 57 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 2 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 24 3 12 14 -18 0 -4 -1 19 7 22 48 200 MB DIV 68 67 53 31 46 16 29 10 37 51 47 48 30 LAND (KM) -42 -141 -43 55 109 174 105 29 -84 -257 -338 -186 -163 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.1 19.5 20.4 21.4 22.0 22.3 22.3 22.5 23.3 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 88.6 89.7 90.8 91.9 93.0 94.9 96.2 97.4 98.7 100.4 102.2 104.1 105.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 11 11 11 9 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 24. 30. 34. 38. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -4. -9. -13. -16. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 20. 24. 25. 25. 25. 23. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 20. 24. 25. 25. 25. 23. 21. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 10/05/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 10/05/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY