* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/05/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 35 32 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18 V (KT) LAND 45 39 35 32 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 38 33 30 27 23 21 19 18 17 17 17 17 SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 5 2 7 5 8 4 5 9 6 2 3 SHEAR DIR 198 157 147 146 152 48 94 47 51 77 103 340 18 SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.2 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.3 25.5 25.7 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 116 114 114 113 112 110 110 111 114 116 117 117 117 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 51 49 48 47 45 49 43 41 40 40 38 36 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 21 21 20 17 17 15 15 13 13 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 7 17 22 39 38 52 58 64 79 92 106 110 113 200 MB DIV 13 21 8 10 10 -15 24 -3 -15 8 -22 4 -11 LAND (KM) 1211 1229 1248 1273 1293 1346 1450 1565 1674 1770 1857 1912 1951 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.9 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.1 19.0 18.8 18.5 18.3 18.0 17.8 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 122.1 122.4 122.6 123.0 123.3 124.2 125.5 126.8 127.9 128.9 129.7 130.2 130.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 5 4 4 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -9. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -3. -5. -6. -9. -9. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -13. -17. -26. -29. -34. -34. -35. -34. -33. -28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -10. -13. -17. -26. -30. -36. -36. -36. -33. -33. -27. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/05/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/05/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY