* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/05/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 47 52 60 66 72 73 69 68 65 61 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 47 52 60 66 72 73 69 68 65 61 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 42 46 51 55 58 59 58 55 49 SHEAR (KTS) 16 11 13 11 10 10 16 12 19 27 27 31 27 SHEAR DIR 119 115 124 127 135 138 136 135 127 131 123 148 140 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 149 150 150 147 146 144 143 140 134 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -51.5 -52.0 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 10 11 10 12 10 11 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 64 63 62 59 59 62 66 69 66 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 15 15 13 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 50 54 58 53 68 59 66 75 109 113 110 101 200 MB DIV 20 18 48 72 68 48 50 38 68 56 76 56 44 LAND (KM) 296 324 353 362 380 336 359 407 428 475 542 623 604 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.4 14.6 15.2 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.6 101.3 101.9 102.6 103.2 104.0 105.2 106.2 107.0 108.0 109.2 110.5 111.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 5 5 5 4 4 5 7 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 24. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 10. 14. 22. 28. 34. 37. 33. 32. 29. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 12. 17. 25. 31. 37. 38. 34. 33. 30. 26. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/05/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/05/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY