* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 10/05/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 37 46 58 64 66 72 72 78 84 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 37 46 58 64 54 42 40 32 35 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 23 25 25 26 30 29 34 SHEAR (KTS) 18 14 9 8 12 13 14 11 11 9 9 13 15 SHEAR DIR 70 69 22 42 21 61 73 131 84 143 122 180 204 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 149 151 155 156 153 154 155 158 160 162 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -51.5 -51.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 9 9 6 10 7 10 8 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 85 84 81 79 80 76 77 72 73 76 78 75 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 12 12 15 16 14 16 14 16 21 850 MB ENV VOR 38 38 28 25 30 26 39 43 63 92 84 66 82 200 MB DIV 102 74 83 92 59 45 55 26 72 72 100 68 52 LAND (KM) 159 185 168 151 147 94 125 64 -7 -6 14 -4 73 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.6 12.1 12.5 13.5 14.5 15.3 16.0 16.8 17.7 18.9 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 87.7 88.4 89.1 89.9 90.7 92.3 93.9 95.6 97.6 99.7 101.8 104.0 106.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 8. 10. 8. 11. 8. 11. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 20. 33. 40. 44. 50. 50. 55. 62. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 17. 26. 38. 44. 46. 52. 52. 58. 64. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 10/05/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 10/05/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY