* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/05/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 30 28 20 17 DIS DIS DIS 15 16 20 V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 30 28 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 31 28 26 23 20 19 17 17 16 16 16 SHEAR (KTS) 7 4 4 5 4 5 7 9 8 13 11 5 8 SHEAR DIR 153 164 116 150 90 13 70 32 84 109 155 171 165 SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.2 25.0 25.1 25.4 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 115 115 112 111 112 115 118 119 121 121 120 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 50 52 49 43 43 44 42 36 38 38 32 27 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 18 18 15 16 14 13 12 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 19 21 32 34 41 40 48 46 76 82 103 110 123 200 MB DIV 9 1 0 -3 -6 -28 -2 5 -26 7 8 24 35 LAND (KM) 1187 1209 1230 1270 1301 1370 1473 1580 1695 1780 1827 1890 1917 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.7 18.3 17.9 17.5 17.3 17.2 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 121.9 122.2 122.4 122.9 123.3 124.3 125.5 126.5 127.6 128.3 128.7 129.4 130.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 5 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -7. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -14. -22. -24. -29. -30. -29. -26. -25. -22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -7. -10. -12. -20. -23. -29. -30. -29. -25. -24. -20. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/05/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/05/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY