* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/05/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 54 58 66 72 75 75 72 71 69 66 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 54 58 66 72 75 75 72 71 69 66 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 50 53 59 63 66 67 66 64 60 56 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 12 11 8 13 16 16 21 22 21 14 12 SHEAR DIR 115 122 118 134 139 134 140 150 137 138 177 155 154 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 148 149 150 149 146 146 145 140 133 130 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 10 11 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 68 64 66 66 62 60 62 68 71 70 67 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 14 15 15 14 13 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 47 51 59 67 66 80 79 119 111 106 100 86 200 MB DIV 30 38 60 67 34 60 34 64 96 82 62 39 24 LAND (KM) 328 346 365 376 383 379 419 437 455 490 608 571 502 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.4 17.2 17.9 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 101.1 101.8 102.4 102.9 103.4 104.5 105.9 106.6 107.3 108.4 110.4 111.3 111.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 4 5 8 8 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 26. 32. 36. 35. 33. 32. 30. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 18. 26. 32. 35. 35. 32. 31. 29. 26. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/05/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/05/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY