* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 10/05/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 32 36 49 56 59 60 67 70 71 69 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 32 36 49 56 59 60 50 36 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 17 6 10 15 10 14 17 8 12 3 8 19 31 SHEAR DIR 85 62 38 51 45 42 54 38 72 320 263 271 247 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.4 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 148 150 152 155 154 152 152 154 158 160 167 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 7 9 8 9 9 9 8 9 7 700-500 MB RH 86 80 81 83 80 73 76 72 76 77 79 78 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 14 14 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 21 19 26 22 21 23 36 60 61 64 42 51 200 MB DIV 65 60 89 52 29 64 34 48 56 87 53 41 67 LAND (KM) 181 174 176 180 172 153 188 151 62 -25 -105 -191 -100 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.1 13.9 14.5 15.3 16.6 18.2 20.1 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 88.4 89.2 89.9 90.7 91.4 92.7 94.1 95.5 97.2 98.8 100.6 102.7 104.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 11 13 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 23. 29. 33. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 5. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 24. 31. 36. 38. 45. 48. 49. 47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 16. 29. 36. 39. 40. 47. 50. 51. 49. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 10/05/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 10/05/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY